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☆ BlackRock says now is the time to lock in higher yields and move cash into bonds
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investors with cash on the sidelines may want to start moving some of that money into bonds, according to a new report from BlackRock. The bond market has seen some volatility amid the uncertainty around interest rates and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Bond yields move inversely to prices. US10Y YTD mountain 10-year Treasury yields Yields are at levels not seen in 20 years, he pointed out. Aggregate Bond ETF year to date The iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF (IUSB) is also a passively managed, broad bond market fund which adds exposure to potentially higher-yielding names.

Persons: Steve Laipply, shouldn't, Laipply Organizations: Federal, Treasury, BlackRock, Fed, Core, Aggregate Bond, Bloomberg U.S, SEC, Aggregate, Bond Locations: BlackRock

☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ Treasury yields little changed ahead of Fed decision, policy guidance
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was less than one basis point higher to 4.6862%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 5.0373% after dipping by around one basis point, holding above the 5% mark it crossed Tuesday. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday, as investors awaited economic data and the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and monetary policy guidance. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, and investors are hoping that officials will provide fresh signals about the potential path ahead for interest rates. Uncertainty has grown in recent weeks about the possibility, number and timing of interest rate cuts this year.

Organizations: Treasury, . U.S, Federal, Fed, Traders Locations: .

☆ Worker pay rose more than expected in Q1 in another sign of persistent inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year, providing another danger sign about persistent inflation, while consumer confidence hit its lowest level in nearly two years. The employment cost index, which measures worker salaries and benefits, gained 1.2% in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The Fed watches the ECI as a significant measure of underlying inflation pressures. State and local government workers saw their compensation costs rise 4.8%, down just narrowly from the same period in 2023. The Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 97, a decline of 6.1 points that was below the Wall Street estimate for 103.5.

Persons: Dow Jones, Dana Peterson, Peterson Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, Fed, Committee, Conference Locations: State

☆ Here's everything to expect when the Fed wraps up its meeting Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Recent commentary from policymakers and on Wall Street indicates there's not much else the committee can do at this point. But they're still hopeful that they will be in a position to cut rates later." Markets actually have held up pretty well since Powell made those comments on April 16, though stocks sold off Tuesday ahead of the meeting. Some on Wall Street, though, are still hopeful that inflation data will show progress and allow the central bank to cut. The Wall Street bank's economists are preparing for the possibility that the Fed could be on hold for longer, particularly if inflation continues to surprise to the upside.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, they're, Powell, We've, there's, specter, LeBas, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, —, Donald Trump, Goldman, Mericle Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Getty, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, Fed, Dow Jones, Department, Labor Department, Republican

☆ Yen clings to sharp gains after suspected intervention, Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen held its line against the dollar on Tuesday after making sharp gains the previous day in moves that traders said were sparked by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. "There is clearly a possibility that the sharp and sudden lifts in the JPY were sparked by intervention. Official figures that would reveal whether intervention did in fact occur won't be available until late May. The Japanese currency still sits lower than it was before the Bank of Japan's policy announcement last week. The Fed is expected to strike a hawkish message, meaning more yen selling is likely, CBA's Kong said.

Persons: haven't, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, bode, CBA's Kong, pare, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Trading, Markets, Bank of, Fed, Traders, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Tokyo, Asia, Japan, U.S, Bank of England

☆ Goldman names 'stable growers' to buy as higher rates put brakes on 2024 rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Stocks with stable growth typically perform best alongside decelerating economic growth." In this economic climate, Goldman is advising clients to buy stocks offering stable growth. The Wall Street bank screened Russell 1000 stocks for those with the most stable growth in earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization on a quarterly basis over the past 10 years. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Goldman said. Industrial companies such as Waste Management and Fastenal also made the list, as well as consumer discretionary names Domino's Pizza and AutoZone .

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Fastenal Organizations: Federal Reserve, Russell, PepsiCo, Colgate, Palmolive, Waste Management

☆ Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Including food and energy, the all-items PCE price gauge increased 2.7%, compared to the 2.6% estimate. The Fed targets 2% inflation, a level that core PCE has been above for the past three years. Services prices increased 0.4% on the month while goods were up 0.1%, reflecting a swing back in consumer prices as goods inflation dominated since the early days of the Covid pandemic.

Persons: Dow Jones, George Mateyo Organizations: Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow, Treasury, Key Wealth, Fed, Labor Department

☆ The Fed will be the main event in the week ahead that includes a jobs report, more tech earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

On top of that, the latest U.S. jobs market scorecard will be released along with more mega-cap earnings. This week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed above 4.7% for the first time since November. That's down sharply from the six or seven rate cuts investors were anticipating coming into the year. April jobs Investors will also get an update on the labor picture next week, with the release of the April nonfarm payrolls report set for Friday. Corporate earnings season will also ramp up in the week ahead with a slew of consumer-facing companies set to report.

Persons: Stocks, Powell, David Alcaly, Jerome Powell's, we've, they're, Brian Nick, Matt Stucky, it's, Stucky, Dow Jones, Nick, Archer, Eli Lilly, Kraft, Estee, Ingersoll Rand, Stanley Black, Decker, Hershey Organizations: Nasdaq, Google, Microsoft, Treasury, Lazard Asset Management, Macro, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Apple, Micro Computer, Dallas Fed, Paramount, ON Semiconductor, Chicago PMI, Prudential Financial, Devices, Storage, Diamondback Energy, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Daniels, Midland, Molson Coors Beverage, Marathon Petroleum, GE Healthcare Technologies, PayPal, ADP, P Global, Manufacturing, Oil, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Etsy, eBay, Qualcomm, MetLife, First, Devon Energy, Cruise Line Holdings, Brands, Marriott International, Kraft Heinz, Pfizer, Companies, CVS Health, Generac, Mastercard, Labor, Nation Entertainment, Booking Holdings, Natural Resources, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, EOG, Coterra Energy, Dominion Energy, Howmet Aerospace, ConocoPhillips, Moderna, PMI, Services PMI Locations: U.S, Chicago, McDonald's, Albemarle, EOG Resources

☆ Treasury yields dip ahead of gross domestic product, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9248% after dipping by just over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Thursday as investors looked ahead to key economic data points that could inform the path ahead for interest rates. Investors awaited gross domestic product and inflation insights due Thursday and Friday, respectively. The data could inform how Federal Reserve policymakers think about monetary policy and what decisions they come to regarding the outlook for interest rates. Markets are widely expecting interest rates to remain unchanged then, with traders last pricing in the first rate cut for September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, PCE

☆ Slowing growth plus stubborn inflation add up to a headache for Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The slowing growth and stubborn inflation picture emerging in the U.S. economy may not be quite a nightmare scenario for the Federal Reserve, but it at least could make for some restless sleep. Markets had been looking for the string of good readings dating back to mid-2022 to continue, with economists estimating real GDP growth of 2.4% and inflation readings around 3%. What it got was essentially what some on Wall Street called the worst of both worlds, with weakening growth and stubborn price pressures. The Fed will get a more granular look at PCE data on Friday when the Commerce Department releases the monthly figures for March. "We still think Fed cuts are coming this summer, before inflation has sustainably slowed."

Persons: Matthew Ryan, —, Ryan, Steven Blitz, Veronica Clark Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce, Treasury, Commerce Department, TS Lombard, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S

☆ Not all dividend strategies are the same. How to choose the best one for you
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

She considers herself a dividend income investor, looking for names that provide a healthy payout for her clients. Her portfolio typically generates a 5% dividend yield or better. Honeywell has a 6% five-year annual dividend growth rate, he said. Lastly, CME Group not only has a 2.2% dividend yield, it tends to pay a special dividend once a year that's posted strong growth, he said. CME has five-year annual dividend growth of 15%, and a flawless balance sheet, he said.

Persons: Jenny Harrington, Kevin Simpson, Harrington, Simpson, Stocks, Kinder Morgan, Richard Kinder Organizations: Asset Management, Wealth, Merck, Verizon, SEC, Companies, Honeywell International, CME Group, Honeywell, Boeing, Group Locations: United States

☆ Investors trying to manage risk boosting our different asset classes, says CME's Terry Duffy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors trying to manage risk boosting our different asset classes, says CME's Terry DuffyTerry Duffy, CME Group chairman and CEO, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the company's quarterly earnings results, if the strength will continue amid macroeconomic headwinds, and more.

Persons: CME's Terry Duffy Terry Duffy

☆ A veteran day trader shares a chart pattern he uses to bet on volatile oil contracts that he says gives him a 90% win ratio
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-21 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In a previous interview with Business Insider, he explained one of his main strategies: using the Fibonacci retracement tool to trade on price volatility. He aims to place a stop-limit buy order on a contract slightly above a previous high. It's based on the assumption that when the price begins to rally upward, it attracts more traders to the market and increases price action. ET, a time when market participation can increase for the oil market and create unpredictable conditions, he sold earlier at $79.24. He also avoids trading oil contracts when there are headlines about geopolitical instability or a breakout of war because they create uncertainty.

Persons: he's, It's, Vernier Organizations: Business, West Texas, CME Group West Texas, Traders, American Petroleum Institute, Energy Information Administration

☆ Would the Fed really hike rates here? This is what would have to happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.

Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas

☆ Wall Street pushes out rate-cut expectations, sees risk they don't start until March 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If there was any doubt before, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pretty much cemented the likelihood that there won't be interest rate reductions anytime soon. Now, Wall Street is wondering if the central bank will cut at all this year. "My sense is they need two, probably three consecutive months of inflation numbers that are consistent with that 2% target. Market pricing for rate cuts has been highly volatile in recent weeks as Wall Street has chased fluctuating Fed rhetoric. As for a second rate cut, there was a tilt toward one in December, but that remains an open question.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, there's, They've, Mark Zandi, Zandi Organizations: Financial, Moody's, Fed Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Excluding auto-related receipts, retail sales jumped 1.1%, also well ahead of the estimate for a 0.5% increase. An increase in gas prices helped push the headline retail sales number higher, with sales up 2.1% on the month at service stations. Resilient consumer spending has helped keep the economy afloat despite higher interest rates and concerns over stubborn inflation. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic output so it is critical to continued growth in gross domestic product. Stronger consumer spending could cause the Fed to hold off longer on cuts, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Persons: Dow, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Commerce Department, Labor Department, Sporting, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ Tension in the Middle East, hot inflation rattle stocks. Take these steps to shore up your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Conflict in the Middle East escalated over the weekend as Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel, and traders braced for a response. Investors have already been on edge as of late amid climbing oil prices and recent economic data that shows inflation is remaining sticky. Rockier times could be ahead, too, noted Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Tax-loss harvesting involves selling losers in your taxable account and using these losses to offset realized gains within your portfolio. Extending duration involves adding exposure to bonds with greater price sensitivity to changes in rates.

Persons: Paul Christopher, Christopher, rebalancing, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Information Technology, Communications Services, BlackRock, Treasury Bond ETF Locations: Fresh, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock

☆ Treasury yields rise as investors consider economic and geopolitical outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields climbed Monday as investors considered the outlook for the economy and looked ahead to fresh data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Traders also assessed geopolitical tensionsInvestors considered the path ahead for the economy and monetary policy following the latest inflation data and looked to fresh economic reports due in the week ahead. That came as questions about the outlook for the economy as well as Federal Reserve monetary policy and especially interest rate cuts were already widespread. In the week ahead, investors will be looking to economic data for fresh hints about the state of the economy. Various Fed policymakers are also expected to give remarks, which investors will be scanning for clues about the monetary policy outlook.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Traders, PPI Locations: East, Iran, Israel

☆ The Russell 2000 smallcaps lost about 3% last week and could face still more trouble ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This month's rout in smallcap stocks has erased the Russell 2000's sparkling first quarter gain, and the benchmark index for smaller shares could face further trouble ahead so long as interest rates are left unchanged. A hotter-than-expected March inflation report on Wednesday pushed investors on Wall Street to extend out expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to September from June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool . The Fed's last interest rate increase in the current cycle was in July, 2023. Servicing debt Hall specifies that the risk to smallcaps is tied to the effect of higher interest rates on refinancing needs. "Higher for longer [interest rates have] generally been good for small cap stocks.

Persons: Russell, Smallcaps, They're, Jill Carey Hall, Hall, Steven DeSanctis, DeSanctis Organizations: Wall, Federal, Bank of America, Bank of, Jefferies Locations: U.S

☆ Here come JPMorgan's earnings. These are the key things traders are watching for in the report
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The banking giant is expected to report earnings of $4.15 per share and $41.84 billion in revenue, according to LSEG. Many analysts also anticipate an upward revision to net interest income guidance, with the firm already forecasting $90 billion for the full year. Graseck views JPMorgan as one of the best-positioned stocks for upward net interest income revisions, also highlighting its significant excess capital relative to others within the firm's coverage. What else to watch If not during earnings, this upward guidance adjustment to net interest income could occur at JPMorgan's investor day in May, she said. Another key figure some analysts are watching is earnings from First Republic, which the company took over in May 2023 .

Persons: JPM, Piper Sandler's Scott Siefers, Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Goldman Sachs, Richard Ramsden, America's Ebrahim Poonawala, Erika Najarian, NII, Wells, Mike Mayo, Ramsden Organizations: JPMorgan, Wall Street, Management, Bank, America's, First Locations: buybacks, First Republic, Republic

☆ European stocks set for mixed open as markets digest U.S. inflation data, look ahead to ECB decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a mixed open on Thursday as global investors digested the latest U.S. inflation data, which came in hotter than expected. European and U.S. stocks traded lower after the U.S. inflation data for March came in at 3.5% year on year, above the 3.4% expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and 0.3 percentage points higher than in February. Markets had expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with further cuts expected later this year, but that shifted dramatically following the release, with traders now expecting the first cut in September, according to CME Group calculations. European investors' focus is on the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision Thursday, with the central bank being closely watched for clues that it could start to cut rates in summer.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Markets, U.S . Federal Reserve, Central Locations: U.S

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in March, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A measure of wholesale prices increased less than expected in March, providing some potential relief from worries that inflation will hold higher for longer than many economists had expected. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI also rose 0.2%, meeting expectations. The release comes a day after the BLS reported that consumer prices again rose more than expected in March, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will be unable to lower interest rates anytime soon. However, wholesale prices for final demand food and goods less food and energy climbed 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively. That contrasted with the consumer price index, which showed gasoline up 1.7% on the month.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Dow, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, BLS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Group

☆ U.S. Treasury yields hold steady as investors digest inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by 1 basis point to 4.552%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.961% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed Thursday as investors digested consumer inflation data and considered the outlook for interest rates. Treasury yields had jumped on Wednesday, with the yield on the 2-year and 10-year Treasurys climbing by as many as 22 and 18 basis points, respectively.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, PPI

☆ The 'supercore' inflation measure shows Fed may have a real problem on its hands
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty ImagesA hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading. Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Today, he added, the picture is more complicated because some of the most stubborn components of services inflation are household necessities like car and housing insurance as well as property taxes. Sticky inflation problem

Persons: Jerome Powell, Eric Baradat, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, Dow Jones, Stephen Stanley, Ian Lyngen, we're Organizations: AFP, Getty, O'Brien & Associates, Dow, Santander U.S, Wall, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Fed Locations: Washington ,

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